Low - sparse data
Validated forecast-buoy pairs
Building
Waiting for enough IOOS buoy matches before publishing beach-level accuracy lift.
Buoy checked
Forecast accuracy receipts.
One quick read on how Quiver's surf forecast is doing against the NOAA baseline, checked against real buoy observations when the sample is ready.
Model only
Latest buoy match
Awaiting latest buoy match
Quiver vs NOAA
Building
waiting on validated buoy pairs
No accuracy improvement claim until the sample supports it.
Accuracy rows are building; Quiver is not claiming lift yet.
- Beaches with rows
- 0
- Validated pairs
- 0
- Refresh cadence
- Daily
Building report
Accuracy rows are being verified.
The page stays useful while Quiver waits for enough buoy-matched pairs to make a backed accuracy claim.
Model only
NOAA baseline comparison
Queued
Quiver needs both NOAA baseline MAE and Quiver MAE before showing improvement.
Low - sparse data
Accuracy lift claim
Held
Accuracy metrics are still building; no displayable beach rows are ready.
How to read it
Three checks, then a plain score.
MAE means average wave-height miss in meters. Lower is better.
- 01 baseline
Start with NOAA
NOAA baseline MAE uses the raw marine forecast before Quiver applies beach-level correction.
- 02 correction
Tune per beach
Quiver MAE uses the corrected forecast after local exposure, swell direction, shelter, and spot-shape signals are applied.
- 03 receipts
Check the buoys
Quiver trusts the comparison only after matching forecast rows to IOOS or NOAA buoy observations inside the validation window.
When the page claims lift
Quiver only says it beat the NOAA baseline when Quiver MAE is lower, at least 10 validated forecast-buoy pairs exist, and the row has a real last-updated timestamp. Otherwise the page shows building status or no measurable lift yet.
Known limits
Nearby buoys are not perfect proxies for every break. Sparse samples can move quickly in a rolling window, and NOAA is a regional marine baseline, not a spot-specific competitor product.
Last updated appears on the live report summary and each qualifying beach row.
Local reports sharpen the model.
Log what you saw: wave size, conditions, crowd. That signal feeds better surf calls for your break.
Report conditionsFrequently Asked Questions
About surfing in surf forecast accuracy
- We use Mean Absolute Error (MAE), the average absolute difference between a predicted wave height and the actual wave height recorded by a nearby IOOS buoy. Lower MAE means more accurate forecasts. We report MAE in meters and compare Quiver's ML-corrected forecast against the raw NOAA marine forecast baseline.
- Accuracy data is evaluated on a rolling window. The page shows last-updated status on the live summary and each qualifying beach row so you can see when the latest forecast-buoy match was recorded.
- Ground truth comes from the Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) buoy network, a national network of ocean sensors operated by NOAA. Buoys report significant wave height every 1–6 hours. We match each forecast to the nearest buoy observation within a 3-hour window.
- The NOAA baseline is the raw National Weather Service (NWS) marine wave height forecast, unmodified. It represents the regional average forecast that any surfer can access from weather.gov. Quiver starts from this baseline and applies per-beach corrections. A positive improvement percentage is only shown as a lift claim when the current validated sample supports it.
- NOAA publishes regional forecasts that don't account for individual beach geography. Quiver's model applies per-beach correction factors from historical buoy validation and local context such as swell direction, wind exposure, and terrain shape. The public report only claims lift when the current validated sample supports it.
- The live report is currently building qualifying beach rows. Until enough validated forecast-buoy pairs are ready, Quiver shows methodology and in-progress status instead of an accuracy lift claim.
